Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Wrong

I've spent some time today doing a deep analysis of a trade I put on 11/30 for APKT (Acme Packet Inc). My thesis for the trade was simiple: the stock had experienced a big move in one day, so I wanted to play the "fade" -- a pullback in the stock. Seemed reasonable for a pullback to occur.

My strategy was to buy the Dec 45 PUT for 1.00 -- I like buying puts when no one wants them. It all seemed to make sense to me when I put the trade on.

So what went wrong? The stock is up another 8% today (12/1) so that trade is currently a loser. For a momentum trader, I showed poor regard for what the chart was showing me. I was convinced that it would pullback, but the chart was clearly telling me something else. I was wrong for that reason - it didn't do what I "thought" it would do. Now it certainly will pullback at some point, and the trade made become a winner, but the lesson here for me is simple:

Trade what you see, not what you think.

I believe I've seen that on StockTwits at least 10,000 times. LoL

No comments:

Post a Comment